Godson des Forges' Autumn perspective

“I read the news today, oh boy”.

It’s been sometime since we tapped out a market comment. If I’m honest, this has been due to a high level of procrastination and prevaricating. Seemingly the news each morning affects our outlook or expectations making an opinion obsolete. 

 At the start of the year, with the October statement behind us, we expected some stability to allow the property market to continue without further bombshells. However, with the return of Mr Trump 2.0, the world quickly realised we were going to get anything but sense and sensibility. While the US does not entirely impact the prime London market, the sentiment coming off the ripples / waves from its (his) actions are now far more unpredictable and have an immediate effect on world order / disorder. 

 Incredibly, our transaction levels for the first six months of the year remained on a par with 2024. In our previous autumn report, the ‘head in hands’ moment came with the recently elected Sir Keir Starmer’s comment that the October budget would be ‘painful’. Surely, they wouldn’t do it again … They did.

Rumours spread over the summer that the government would look at further wealth taxes, principally around property ownership. This included a possible annual tax levied against the value of your home, further tax on Landlords, or a shakeup of Stamp Duty (SDLT) altogether. Whatever happens, and it is all speculation, the worst outcome was the wait until 26th November for the Great Reveal. The autumn market, again, goes on hold but worse this time, as the statement is so late that buyers are unlikely to start looking in earnest on the 27th November. Realistically, it’ll be February before we see normality returning. With a government so desperate for funds, it’s unfathomably bad foresight to leak such seismic ‘will we, won’t we’ that, again, puts such an important transactional market on hold. As is so often forgotten, little is mentioned of all the trades and professions that are also affected by stagnation – from solicitors, mortgage advisors, builders, plumbers, kitchen suppliers, and removal firms, inter alia. The property markets ecosystem is far reaching, and such poor judgement affects so many businesses.   

In September, we received far fewer enquiries as buyers and vendors took stock. For buyers willing to take a calculated risk against November’s statement, there are some incredible opportunities and with so much available stock, it could be a perfect time to secure a home at a favourable level. Vendors, wanting to transact this year, need to get realistic on their pricing before October is out, to take advantage of the few good buyers in the market.

 The most fascinating detail will be around any changes on property tax; both on the transactional cost and cost to own it. Since 2014, SDLT has been incredibly divisive across the majority of markets and greatly hampers the simple right of people living where they want to live. The Leader of the Conservative party, Kemi Badenoch’s recent statement that the Conservatives would scrap SDLT may further press Labour to push through much needed change and move away from the current crippling transactional tax, providing a boost to the said ecosystem that thrives off the property market. (very long sentence - can you split?) It’ll be a bold move to do away with SDLT but its prohibitive effect needs to be replaced or reduced to stimulate a more fluid market. This government doesn’t feel particularly dynamic, but it needs to reinvigorate the housing market and put the ‘right to move’ above ‘tax take’. We’re on tenterhooks.

Please do get in touch if you’d like to have a chat about selling your property - we’d love to help.